Statistical Adjustment Model Summary for Colorado

This is a summary of the key elements derived from the statistical adjustment models developed for PY 2020-2021. For each individual performance indicator there are plots that show how the actual level of performance for Colorado in PY 2018 compared to all states and how the predicted level of performance (i.e., Estimate0) for Colorado in PY 2020 compares to the predicted levels for all states. There are also tables that give all the relevant model estimates and pre-PY 2020 data for all of the model variables. In addition, the last tab has a table that identifies all the variables included in each individual indicator model.

Adult

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Adult program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 80.7% for Colorado for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 0.813) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.006).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.1302 0.5538 7.21%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0308 0.5484 -1.69%
Age 45 to 54 -0.1545 0.1487 -2.30%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0779 0.0611 -0.48%
Age 60 or more -0.5993 0.0401 -2.41%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.0815 0.2614 2.13%
Race: Asian -0.2333 0.0310 -0.72%
Race: Black 0.0861 0.1300 1.12%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.1320 0.0064 -0.08%
Race: American Indian 0.0501 0.0484 0.24%
Race: Multiple -0.1183 0.0383 -0.45%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1257 0.3545 -4.45%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1221 0.2213 -2.70%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0978 0.0465 0.46%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0773 0.0744 -0.57%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 0.1722 0.1702 2.93%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1430 0.0438 -0.63%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1964 0.3987 7.83%
In School at Program Entry 0.1265 0.0470 0.59%
Individual with a Disability -0.1813 0.1109 -2.01%
Veteran 0.2901 0.0789 2.29%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0306 0.0274 -0.08%
Single Parent -0.0942 0.2235 -2.11%
Low Income 0.0081 0.6702 0.54%
Homeless -0.0534 0.0739 -0.39%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1550 0.1638 2.54%
Displaced Homemaker -0.1842 0.0014 -0.03%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1889 0.6483 12.25%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0157 0.1387 0.22%
UI Claimant -0.0148 0.0862 -0.13%
UI Exhaustee 0.1394 0.0073 0.10%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0620 0.4498 2.79%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.4886 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.0494 0.0260 -0.13%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.0205 0.0338 -0.07%
TANF Recipient 0.0438 0.0776 0.34%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0220 0.9489 2.09%
Median Days in Program -0.0002 136.0000 -2.49%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 2.1266 0.0176 3.74%
Construction Employment 0.8615 0.0662 5.71%
Manufacturing Employment 0.1897 0.0552 1.05%
Information Services Employment -5.3312 0.0289 -15.43%
Financial Services Employment -4.8664 0.0619 -30.12%
Professional and Business Services Employment 3.7575 0.1599 60.07%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.8235 0.2122 17.47%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.8923 0.1288 -11.49%
Other Services Employment 4.5274 0.0310 14.02%
Public Administration 2.2149 0.0556 12.33%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.6822 0.0331 2.26%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $7,145 for Colorado for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 42810) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-35665).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2841.0668 0.5664 -$1,609
Age 25 to 44 -862.0930 0.5717 -$493
Age 45 to 54 -3144.2089 0.1270 -$399
Age 55 to 59 -5290.3216 0.0542 -$287
Age 60 or more -6059.0062 0.0309 -$187
Hispanic Ethnicity 232.4254 0.2593 $60
Race: Asian -4413.8578 0.0321 -$141
Race: Black -2324.8593 0.1323 -$308
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -6352.7320 0.0064 -$41
Race: American Indian -2692.4326 0.0478 -$129
Race: Multiple 6983.7945 0.0408 $285
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 362.0217 0.3537 $128
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 826.8902 0.2238 $185
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -1324.3050 0.0501 -$66
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 5643.1853 0.0763 $431
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 4052.0797 0.1748 $708
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 8539.9365 0.0385 $328
Employed at Program Entry 965.0801 0.4487 $433
In School at Program Entry 3623.2012 0.0490 $177
Individual with a Disability -989.2237 0.0991 -$98
Veteran -1349.3089 0.0769 -$104
Limited English Proficiency -4419.8922 0.0262 -$116
Single Parent 145.7630 0.2226 $32
Low Income -332.4067 0.6387 -$212
Homeless -446.4262 0.0600 -$27
Individual who was Incarcerated 2013.3031 0.1399 $282
Displaced Homemaker -1947.9185 0.0012 -$2
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 807.6246 0.7150 $577
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3653 4907.7400 $1,793
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 2011.8227 0.1160 $233
UI Claimant 685.8891 0.0868 $60
UI Exhaustee -2567.3504 0.0070 -$18
Supportive Services Recipient 912.9138 0.4476 $409
Received Needs-related Payments 15112.5289 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 107.5299 0.0221 $2
SSI or SSDI Recipient -5911.8510 0.0239 -$141
TANF Recipient 840.8641 0.0734 $62
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -205.4928 0.9499 -$195
Median Days in Program 3.2489 141.0000 $458
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 24063.8444 0.0176 $423
Construction Employment 32326.4938 0.0662 $2,141
Manufacturing Employment 39237.2625 0.0552 $2,165
Information Services Employment -48189.2565 0.0289 -$1,394
Financial Services Employment 4074.2901 0.0619 $252
Professional and Business Services Employment 96754.4484 0.1599 $15,468
Educational or Health Care Employment 56163.1547 0.2122 $11,917
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 57668.0011 0.1288 $7,429
Other Services Employment 10767.7935 0.0310 $333
Public Administration 39658.6388 0.0556 $2,207
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -6106.3827 0.0331 -$202

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 52.1% for Colorado for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 6.505) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-5.984).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.3614 0.5724 -20.69%
Age 25 to 44 0.5218 0.5849 30.52%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0702 0.1286 -0.90%
Age 55 to 59 -0.9975 0.0484 -4.83%
Age 60 or more 2.9217 0.0344 10.04%
Hispanic Ethnicity -1.4456 0.2646 -38.25%
Race: Asian 2.1310 0.0370 7.88%
Race: Black -0.5671 0.1464 -8.30%
Race: American Indian 0.8520 0.0495 4.22%
Race: Multiple 1.9759 0.0453 8.95%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1218 0.3542 -4.31%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1842 0.1984 -3.66%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 0.0731 0.0516 0.38%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.8544 0.0922 -7.88%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.2005 0.1620 -3.25%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 1.8387 0.0422 7.76%
Employed at Program Entry 0.3647 0.4359 15.90%
In School at Program Entry -0.3045 0.0969 -2.95%
Individual with a Disability -0.2611 0.1130 -2.95%
Veteran 0.2508 0.0708 1.78%
Limited English Proficiency 0.8810 0.0411 3.62%
Single Parent 0.2135 0.2552 5.45%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.7809 0.1562 12.20%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -0.0013 0.6427 -0.08%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0652 0.1490 0.97%
UI Exhaustee 0.0104 0.0057 0.01%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1297 0.4661 -6.04%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.4929 0.0344 1.69%
TANF Recipient -0.2848 0.0766 -2.18%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0732 0.9984 7.31%
Median Days in Program 0.0004 170.0000 6.03%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0002 83.0000 -2.02%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.0087 0.2719 -0.24%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 10.0155 0.0176 17.62%
Construction Employment 8.9287 0.0662 59.13%
Manufacturing Employment 12.1240 0.0552 66.88%
Information Services Employment -43.8313 0.0289 -126.82%
Financial Services Employment 31.7234 0.0619 196.36%
Professional and Business Services Employment 7.5758 0.1599 121.11%
Educational or Health Care Employment 9.9286 0.2122 210.67%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 2.5813 0.1288 33.25%
Other Services Employment 32.8685 0.0310 101.76%
Public Administration -0.1431 0.0556 -0.80%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -13.5535 0.0331 -44.83%

Dislocated Worker

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Dislocated Worker program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 77.9% for Colorado for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -2.001) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (2.78).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0596 0.5043 3.01%
Age 25 to 44 0.0189 0.4082 0.77%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0169 0.3164 -0.54%
Age 55 to 59 0.1060 0.1425 1.51%
Age 60 or more -0.1905 0.1091 -2.08%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.1185 0.2095 2.48%
Race: Asian -0.2910 0.0335 -0.97%
Race: Black -0.0358 0.0994 -0.36%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.8792 0.0076 0.66%
Race: American Indian -0.0983 0.0378 -0.37%
Race: Multiple -0.1947 0.0292 -0.57%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0259 0.2419 -0.63%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.1942 0.1447 -2.81%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.1799 0.0302 -0.54%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree -0.0907 0.1188 -1.08%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1447 0.3035 -4.39%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.1210 0.1112 -1.35%
Employed at Program Entry 0.1061 0.0972 1.03%
In School at Program Entry -0.0254 0.0032 -0.01%
Individual with a Disability -0.0527 0.0842 -0.44%
Veteran 0.0056 0.1220 0.07%
Limited English Proficiency -0.2521 0.0162 -0.41%
Single Parent 0.0446 0.1458 0.65%
Low Income -0.0518 0.3607 -1.87%
Homeless 0.0306 0.0216 0.07%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.3775 0.0767 2.89%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2274 0.0227 -0.52%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.1131 0.8337 9.43%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.0574 0.1771 1.02%
UI Claimant 0.0208 0.7430 1.55%
UI Exhaustee 0.0737 0.0562 0.41%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0496 0.3099 1.54%
Received Needs-related Payments -0.4938 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1259 0.0011 -0.01%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.8134 0.0000 0.00%
TANF Recipient -0.5301 0.0140 -0.74%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0512 0.9795 -5.02%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 169.0000 0.14%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -2.0224 0.0176 -3.56%
Construction Employment -0.4670 0.0662 -3.09%
Manufacturing Employment -1.7064 0.0552 -9.41%
Information Services Employment -9.8998 0.0289 -28.64%
Financial Services Employment -6.2744 0.0619 -38.84%
Professional and Business Services Employment -3.6027 0.1599 -57.60%
Educational or Health Care Employment -1.9946 0.2122 -42.32%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -2.8519 0.1288 -36.74%
Other Services Employment 3.0428 0.0310 9.42%
Public Administration 1.2295 0.0556 6.84%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.4118 0.0331 1.36%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $9,743 for Colorado for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 34875) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-25133).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1901.3415 0.4910 -$934
Age 25 to 44 1115.5154 0.4286 $478
Age 45 to 54 -125.9873 0.3162 -$40
Age 55 to 59 -2126.3785 0.1429 -$304
Age 60 or more -2492.9312 0.0860 -$214
Hispanic Ethnicity -857.7550 0.2080 -$178
Race: Asian -4684.9713 0.0319 -$149
Race: Black -1536.6027 0.0902 -$139
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3269.1753 0.0083 -$27
Race: American Indian -3522.2138 0.0361 -$127
Race: Multiple -3712.0594 0.0264 -$98
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1400.0970 0.2427 -$340
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -1902.9048 0.1387 -$264
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 83.4151 0.0250 $2
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 1526.2402 0.1248 $191
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 1169.4179 0.3218 $376
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree 2155.0497 0.0985 $212
Employed at Program Entry 1700.7794 0.1054 $179
In School at Program Entry 3787.5103 0.0042 $16
Individual with a Disability 279.5931 0.0666 $19
Veteran 1445.8344 0.1221 $176
Limited English Proficiency -2976.1328 0.0125 -$37
Single Parent -784.4348 0.1512 -$119
Low Income -538.7097 0.3440 -$185
Homeless 7893.8250 0.0208 $164
Individual who was Incarcerated 1805.9783 0.0763 $138
Displaced Homemaker 192.7564 0.0180 $3
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 21.0817 0.8724 $18
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0917 10718.4800 $982
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 1348.3682 0.1540 $208
UI Claimant 68.6962 0.7712 $53
UI Exhaustee -2493.0132 0.0458 -$114
Supportive Services Recipient 176.1628 0.3162 $56
Received Needs-related Payments 6660.1906 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance 470.0451 0.0014 $1
SSI or SSDI Recipient -2105.8014 0.0000 $0
TANF Recipient -4222.3011 0.0111 -$47
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -403.3425 0.9792 -$395
Median Days in Program 2.2222 159.5000 $354
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -27241.5941 0.0176 -$479
Construction Employment 36651.6742 0.0662 $2,427
Manufacturing Employment 47186.5858 0.0552 $2,603
Information Services Employment -260263.7041 0.0289 -$7,530
Financial Services Employment 85893.1957 0.0619 $5,317
Professional and Business Services Employment 95022.1320 0.1599 $15,191
Educational or Health Care Employment 51172.3083 0.2122 $10,858
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43978.6506 0.1288 $5,666
Other Services Employment -4546.6888 0.0310 -$141
Public Administration 22271.2780 0.0556 $1,239
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5795.6816 0.0331 -$192

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 52.1% for Colorado for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 5.133) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-4.612).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.1509 0.5065 -7.64%
Age 25 to 44 -0.0655 0.4286 -2.81%
Age 45 to 54 0.2414 0.2944 7.11%
Age 55 to 59 0.4579 0.1429 6.54%
Age 60 or more 0.9139 0.1010 9.23%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.6646 0.2035 -13.52%
Race: Asian -0.5340 0.0303 -1.62%
Race: Black -0.3293 0.0837 -2.76%
Race: American Indian 2.6465 0.0361 9.55%
Race: Multiple 0.0503 0.0332 0.17%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.1922 0.2309 -4.44%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.2384 0.1328 -3.16%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.2607 0.0447 -1.17%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.2625 0.1010 2.65%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.1123 0.3016 -3.39%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.4275 0.1472 -6.29%
Employed at Program Entry -0.0215 0.1198 -0.26%
In School at Program Entry -0.2643 0.0260 -0.69%
Individual with a Disability -1.4481 0.0837 -12.12%
Veteran -0.9235 0.1255 -11.59%
Limited English Proficiency 0.4514 0.0231 1.04%
Single Parent 0.3691 0.1573 5.81%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.4693 0.0620 2.91%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.0287 0.8398 2.41%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 0.3881 0.1501 5.82%
UI Exhaustee 0.3561 0.0418 1.49%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0615 0.4185 -2.57%
SSI or SSDI Recipient -0.4356 0.0000 0.00%
TANF Recipient -3.8716 0.0130 -5.03%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0963 1.0000 -9.63%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 232.5000 -7.47%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 104.0000 -2.84%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days 0.1620 0.2208 3.58%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -8.0806 0.0176 -14.22%
Construction Employment 4.4493 0.0662 29.47%
Manufacturing Employment 9.8551 0.0552 54.37%
Information Services Employment -58.7056 0.0289 -169.86%
Financial Services Employment 12.1977 0.0619 75.50%
Professional and Business Services Employment 16.0554 0.1599 256.68%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.1634 0.2122 152.00%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 1.5122 0.1288 19.48%
Other Services Employment 65.3154 0.0310 202.22%
Public Administration -2.8478 0.0556 -15.85%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10.8237 0.0331 -35.80%

Youth

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Youth program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 67.7% for Colorado for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of -1.291) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (1.968).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0595 0.5168 3.07%
Age 14 to 15 0.1226 0.0057 0.07%
Age 16 to 17 -0.1436 0.2808 -4.03%
Age 18 to 19 -0.2054 0.3460 -7.11%
Age 20 to 21 0.0105 0.1790 0.19%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0628 0.3719 -2.33%
Race: Asian 0.1989 0.0183 0.36%
Race: Black -0.0414 0.0980 -0.41%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -0.5342 0.0127 -0.68%
Race: American Indian -0.3341 0.0436 -1.46%
Race: Multiple 0.1508 0.0474 0.72%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 0.0691 0.3213 2.22%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -0.3127 0.0215 -0.67%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 1.1469 0.0038 0.44%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 0.4935 0.0101 0.50%
Employed at Program Entry 0.2748 0.2903 7.98%
In School at Program Entry 0.0356 0.1758 0.63%
Individual with a Disability -0.0469 0.1803 -0.84%
Limited English Proficiency -0.1392 0.0930 -1.29%
Low Income 0.0375 0.7799 2.92%
Homeless -0.2008 0.0917 -1.84%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.0635 0.1423 0.90%
Foster Care Youth -0.0100 0.0405 -0.04%
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth -0.0716 0.2195 -1.57%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.0349 0.4978 1.74%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.0867 0.0209 -0.18%
UI Claimant -0.0433 0.0158 -0.07%
Supportive Services Recipient 0.0442 0.6059 2.68%
Received Needs-related Payments 0.7660 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1510 0.0095 -0.14%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.0743 0.0323 0.24%
TANF Recipient -0.0341 0.0670 -0.23%
Pell Grant Recipient 0.0368 0.0101 0.04%
Youth Needing Additional Assistance 0.0005 0.5863 0.03%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services 0.0148 0.9608 1.43%
Median Days in Program 0.0000 189.0000 -0.76%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -6.7872 0.0176 -11.94%
Construction Employment -1.8800 0.0662 -12.45%
Manufacturing Employment -1.3602 0.0552 -7.50%
Information Services Employment -7.2974 0.0289 -21.11%
Financial Services Employment -2.1367 0.0619 -13.23%
Professional and Business Services Employment -2.5564 0.1599 -40.87%
Educational or Health Care Employment 0.0247 0.2122 0.52%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment -0.3944 0.1288 -5.08%
Other Services Employment -10.7940 0.0310 -33.42%
Public Administration 3.2993 0.0556 18.36%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.4872 0.0331 -4.92%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $3,577 for Colorado for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 14283) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-10706).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -1877.4943 0.5385 -$1,011.09
Age 14 to 15 -92.3013 0.0055 -$0.51
Age 16 to 17 -1309.0587 0.2505 -$327.87
Age 18 to 19 -1066.4762 0.3486 -$371.80
Age 20 to 21 649.4931 0.1945 $126.32
Hispanic Ethnicity 1913.4585 0.3752 $717.99
Race: Asian 649.7122 0.0183 $11.92
Race: Black -886.3703 0.1000 -$88.64
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -3388.4232 0.0128 -$43.52
Race: American Indian -184.4720 0.0413 -$7.62
Race: Multiple 933.1134 0.0459 $42.80
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency 1383.9408 0.3450 $477.40
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -828.1913 0.0248 -$20.51
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree 173.0955 0.0055 $0.95
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 6672.3330 0.0147 $97.94
Employed at Program Entry 613.7857 0.3376 $207.22
In School at Program Entry 546.1994 0.1706 $93.20
Individual with a Disability -495.1811 0.1826 -$90.40
Limited English Proficiency 2456.3023 0.0917 $225.35
Low Income -305.7985 0.7752 -$237.06
Homeless 983.9044 0.0789 $77.63
Individual who was Incarcerated -1284.6596 0.1284 -$165.00
Foster Care Youth 1009.8293 0.0385 $38.91
Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth 854.5128 0.2284 $195.21
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry -283.4775 0.5009 -$142.00
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -630.2664 0.0165 -$10.41
UI Claimant -462.5838 0.0229 -$10.61
Supportive Services Recipient 161.1750 0.6284 $101.29
Received Needs-related Payments 2823.2240 0.0000 $0.00
Received Other Public Assistance -184.0786 0.0092 -$1.69
SSI or SSDI Recipient -1658.7545 0.0312 -$51.74
TANF Recipient -539.6509 0.0615 -$33.17
Pell Grant Recipient 104.1843 0.0119 $1.24
Youth Needing Additional Assistance -4.3341 0.5835 -$2.53
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -27.8731 0.9569 -$26.67
Median Days in Program 0.5942 193.0000 $114.68
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment -3172.1958 0.0176 -$55.82
Construction Employment 10994.4772 0.0662 $728.13
Manufacturing Employment 21559.9593 0.0552 $1,189.39
Information Services Employment -55465.6493 0.0289 -$1,604.82
Financial Services Employment 44805.1055 0.0619 $2,773.29
Professional and Business Services Employment 14219.0161 0.1599 $2,273.17
Educational or Health Care Employment 20372.0444 0.2122 $4,322.66
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 7088.2477 0.1288 $913.17
Other Services Employment 57026.8505 0.0310 $1,765.56
Public Administration 43573.5139 0.0556 $2,424.81
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -10090.2192 0.0331 -$333.76

Measurable Skill Gains

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 42.3% for Colorado for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 3.728) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-3.305).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -0.2758 0.5639 -15.55%
Age 14 to 15 -0.8106 0.0019 -0.16%
Age 16 to 17 -0.9025 0.3089 -27.88%
Age 18 to 19 -0.6998 0.3166 -22.16%
Age 20 to 21 -1.6404 0.1824 -29.92%
Hispanic Ethnicity -0.0170 0.3854 -0.65%
Race: Asian -0.0162 0.0193 -0.03%
Race: Black 0.0042 0.1008 0.04%
Race: American Indian -0.1578 0.0584 -0.92%
Race: Multiple 1.9727 0.0527 10.39%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.2692 0.2441 -6.57%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 1.0513 0.0180 1.89%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.6449 0.0039 -0.25%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree 1.9000 0.0077 1.46%
In School at Program Entry 0.0220 0.1933 0.43%
Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry 0.1976 0.5382 10.64%
UI Claimant 0.0198 0.0096 0.02%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.0712 0.6802 -4.85%
Received Other Public Assistance 0.2742 0.0090 0.25%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 0.5536 0.0193 1.07%
Pell Grant Recipient -0.8864 0.0077 -0.68%
Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services -0.0503 0.9994 -5.02%
Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training -0.0003 112.0000 -3.65%
Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days -0.3441 0.2081 -7.16%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 7.6282 0.0176 13.42%
Construction Employment 9.5740 0.0662 63.41%
Manufacturing Employment 5.8313 0.0552 32.17%
Information Services Employment -42.8136 0.0289 -123.88%
Financial Services Employment -14.2433 0.0619 -88.16%
Professional and Business Services Employment 14.4769 0.1599 231.44%
Educational or Health Care Employment 7.0634 0.2122 149.88%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 6.2993 0.1288 81.15%
Other Services Employment 50.8391 0.0310 157.40%
Public Administration -7.3408 0.0556 -40.85%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -1.1663 0.0331 -3.86%

Wagner-Peyser

Specific model data for each performance indicator in the Wagner-Peyser program are below.

Employment Rate 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of 64.9% for Colorado for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 1.318) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-0.669).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female 0.0801 0.4676 3.74%
Age 25 to 44 0.1086 0.4203 4.56%
Age 45 to 54 -0.0860 0.1968 -1.69%
Age 55 to 59 -0.0070 0.1002 -0.07%
Age 60 or more -0.0629 0.1035 -0.65%
Hispanic Ethnicity 0.2326 0.2858 6.65%
Race: Asian -0.2354 0.0183 -0.43%
Race: Black -0.1609 0.0935 -1.50%
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander 0.9703 0.0057 0.56%
Race: American Indian -0.3062 0.0527 -1.61%
Race: Multiple 0.2471 0.0343 0.85%
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -0.0172 0.4097 -0.70%
Highest Grade Completed: Some College 0.0386 0.1528 0.59%
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -0.0422 0.0198 -0.08%
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 0.3496 0.0663 2.32%
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree -0.6768 0.1305 -8.83%
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -0.5246 0.0451 -2.37%
Employed at Program Entry 0.0865 0.1794 1.55%
In School at Program Entry -0.0903 0.0049 -0.04%
Individual with a Disability -0.3557 0.0893 -3.18%
Veteran 0.2170 0.0913 1.98%
Limited English Proficiency -0.0185 0.0225 -0.04%
Single Parent 0.2027 0.0114 0.23%
Low Income 0.0926 0.1428 1.32%
Homeless -0.0667 0.0590 -0.39%
Individual who was Incarcerated 0.1850 0.1493 2.76%
Displaced Homemaker -0.2304 0.0007 -0.02%
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.3174 0.6497 20.62%
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry -0.1541 0.0072 -0.11%
UI Claimant -0.0385 0.2886 -1.11%
UI Exhaustee -0.0897 0.0011 -0.01%
Supportive Services Recipient -0.1026 0.0448 -0.46%
Received Needs-related Payments -9.8950 0.0000 0.00%
Received Other Public Assistance -0.1163 0.0010 -0.01%
SSI or SSDI Recipient 1.0873 0.0016 0.17%
TANF Recipient -0.5680 0.0039 -0.22%
Median Days in Program -0.0003 35.0000 -0.96%
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 1.6856 0.0176 2.97%
Construction Employment 1.5411 0.0662 10.21%
Manufacturing Employment 1.0127 0.0552 5.59%
Information Services Employment -0.4595 0.0289 -1.33%
Financial Services Employment 2.9649 0.0619 18.35%
Professional and Business Services Employment 0.9431 0.1599 15.08%
Educational or Health Care Employment 1.2831 0.2122 27.23%
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 0.5919 0.1288 7.62%
Other Services Employment 3.9021 0.0310 12.08%
Public Administration 1.7006 0.0556 9.46%
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 0.3440 0.0331 1.14%

Median Earnings 2nd Quarter after Exit

For this indicator, the tables below show the estimates for each of the variables in the statistical adjustment model and the related actual data. This data is used to determine the predicted level of performance for PY 2020 that is shown in the plot above. The PY 2020 prediction of $5,592 for Colorado for this performance indicator is calculated by summing the Variable Estimate0 values (total of 42025) and the specific state fixed effect for this model (-36433).

Definitions of the terms used in the table below:

  • Coefficient - the effect (or weight) of the variable.
  • PY Prior - the actual data for each variable for this state prior to PY 2020.
  • Variable Estimate0 - the amount the variable contributed to the pre-PY 2020 predicted target for this indicator as used as a factor in negotiations. It is calculated by multiplying the Coefficient by the PY Prior.
Model Variable Estimates
Variable Type Variable Coefficient Pre-PY Variable Estimate0
Participant Characteristic Female -2774.8460 0.4748 -$1,317
Age 25 to 44 1526.7709 0.4473 $683
Age 45 to 54 223.6212 0.2040 $46
Age 55 to 59 1725.9534 0.1005 $174
Age 60 or more 3989.3863 0.0857 $342
Hispanic Ethnicity 1506.2736 0.2922 $440
Race: Asian -1285.7589 0.0190 -$24
Race: Black -2926.8319 0.0994 -$291
Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander -2473.0352 0.0060 -$15
Race: American Indian -5567.8497 0.0529 -$294
Race: Multiple 10678.0968 0.0347 $371
Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency -1763.8797 0.4186 -$738
Highest Grade Completed: Some College -2177.4526 0.1601 -$349
Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree -2180.3190 0.0214 -$47
Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree 2095.5471 0.0714 $150
Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree 72.8128 0.1392 $10
Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree -5012.8376 0.0450 -$226
Employed at Program Entry 456.1906 0.2184 $100
In School at Program Entry -1155.2072 0.0053 -$6
Individual with a Disability -5107.0692 0.0762 -$389
Veteran -913.8967 0.0879 -$80
Limited English Proficiency 1563.7512 0.0235 $37
Single Parent 660.1018 0.0132 $9
Low Income 634.4633 0.1388 $88
Homeless -3513.0948 0.0537 -$189
Individual who was Incarcerated 1920.7679 0.1479 $284
Displaced Homemaker -10834.3804 0.0006 -$7
Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation -219.4792 0.7558 -$166
Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation 0.2612 6305.4900 $1,647
Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry 771.2849 0.0072 $6
UI Claimant 454.7967 0.3058 $139
UI Exhaustee 247.9889 0.0010 $0
Supportive Services Recipient -636.3855 0.0483 -$31
Received Needs-related Payments -21804.7067 0.0000 $0
Received Other Public Assistance -1174.5793 0.0010 -$1
SSI or SSDI Recipient 10874.7587 0.0014 $15
TANF Recipient 1657.8393 0.0042 $7
Median Days in Program 0.8717 37.0000 $32
Economic Condition Natural Resources Employment 37057.6079 0.0176 $652
Construction Employment 42760.7710 0.0662 $2,832
Manufacturing Employment 47700.8708 0.0552 $2,631
Information Services Employment 11314.8086 0.0289 $327
Financial Services Employment 62614.6797 0.0619 $3,876
Professional and Business Services Employment 67885.3402 0.1599 $10,853
Educational or Health Care Employment 51491.7764 0.2122 $10,926
Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment 43018.4305 0.1288 $5,542
Other Services Employment 41629.7443 0.0310 $1,289
Public Administration 51356.2602 0.0556 $2,858
Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted -5089.3910 0.0331 -$168

Full Model Variable Table

The table below shows which variables are included in which models. It also includes both the variable names used in the modeling process and the full name of the variables.

Variable Names
Adult
Dislocated Worker
Youth
Wagner-Peyser
Model Variable Full Variable Name Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME MSG Q2ER ME
female Female x x x x x x x x x x x
age1415 Age 14 to 15 x x x
age1617 Age 16 to 17 x x x
age1819 Age 18 to 19 x x x
age2021 Age 20 to 21 x x x
age2544 Age 25 to 44 x x x x x x x x
age4554 Age 45 to 54 x x x x x x x x
age5559 Age 55 to 59 x x x x x x x x
age60 Age 60 or more x x x x x x x x
hispanic Hispanic Ethnicity x x x x x x x x x x x
raceasian Race: Asian x x x x x x x x x x x
raceblack Race: Black x x x x x x x x x x x
racehpi Race: Hawaiian or Pacific Islander x x x x x x x x
raceai Race: American Indian x x x x x x x x x x x
racemulti Race: Multiple x x x x x x x x x x x
hsgrad Highest Grade Completed: High School Equivalency x x x x x x x x x x x
collegedropout Highest Grade Completed: Some College x x x x x x x x x x x
certotherps Highest Grade Completed: Certificate or Other Post-Secondary Degree x x x x x x x x x x x
associate Highest Grade Completed: Associate Degree x x x x x x x x
ba Highest Grade Completed: Bachelor Degree x x x x x x x x
associateorba Highest Grade Completed: Associate or Bachelor Degree x x x
gradschool Highest Grade Completed: Graduate Degree x x x x x x x x
empentry Employed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
edstatentry In School at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x x
disabled Individual with a Disability x x x x x x x x x x
veteran Veteran x x x x x x x x
englearner Limited English Proficiency x x x x x x x x x x
singleparent Single Parent x x x x x x x x
lowinc Low Income x x x x x x x x
homeless Homeless x x x x x x x x
offender Individual who was Incarcerated x x x x x x x x x x
dishomemaker Displaced Homemaker x x x x x x
yfoster Foster Care Youth x x
yparent Youth Parent or Pregnant Youth x x
basiclitdeficient Skills/Literacy Deficient at Program Entry x x x
recwages2qprior Received Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x x x x x x
wages2qprior Wages 2 Quarters Prior to Participation x x x
longtermunemp Long-Term Unemployed at Program Entry x x x x x x x x x x
uiclaimant UI Claimant x x x x x x x x x
uiexhaustee UI Exhaustee x x x x x x x x
recsuppserv Supportive Services Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
recneeds Received Needs-related Payments x x x x x x x x
recotherasst Received Other Public Assistance x x x x x x x x x
recssi SSI or SSDI Recipient x x x x x x x x x x x
rectanf TANF Recipient x x x x x x x x x x
recpell Pell Grant Recipient x
ynaa Youth Needing Additional Assistance x x
wp Received Wagner-Peyser Act Services x x x x x x x x x
daysinprog Median Days in Program x x x x x x x x x x
daysenrolled Median Days Enrolled in Education or Training x x x
daysenrolled_under30 Percent Enrolled in Education or Training Under 30 Days x x x
natresources Natural Resources Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
construction Construction Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
manufacturing Manufacturing Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
information Information Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
financial Financial Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
business Professional and Business Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
edhealthcare Educational or Health Care Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
leisure Leisure, Hospitality, or Entertainment Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
otheremp Other Services Employment x x x x x x x x x x x
publicadmin Public Administration x x x x x x x x x x x
ur Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted x x x x x x x x x x x